What are the prospects for peace in Syria?
A New Era for Syria: The Fall of Assad and Its Implications
The sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024 marked a pivotal moment in Syria’s history, ending decades of authoritarian rule and opening a window for potential democratic transition[1]. This shift is not only significant for Syria but also has profound implications for the broader Middle East, influencing regional power dynamics and international relations. The fall of Assad was precipitated by a coordinated offensive by opposition forces, notably led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which captured key cities like Aleppo, Hama, and eventually Damascus[1].
The international community’s response to this new landscape is crucial. Civil society organizations, which have played a vital role in documenting human rights abuses and providing aid during the civil war, are now essential in facilitating an inclusive transition process[1]. However, challenges abound, including the need for massive reconstruction, refugee resettlement, and addressing the legacy of human rights violations.
Historical Context: The Syrian Civil War
The Syrian Civil War began in 2011 as a peaceful uprising against the Assad regime, evolving into a complex conflict involving multiple international actors. The war has been marked by severe human rights abuses, including forced disappearances and torture, with an estimated 150,000 people forcibly disappeared since its onset[1]. The conflict has also led to significant geopolitical shifts, with Russia and Iran supporting the Assad regime, while the U.S., Turkey, and other Western countries backed various opposition groups[4].
The Role of International Actors
The fall of Assad has created both opportunities and challenges for international actors. Russia, already engaged in a costly war in Ukraine, faces the loss of a strategic ally and military bases in the Mediterranean[1]. Iran’s influence in the region has diminished, particularly concerning its supply lines to Hezbollah[5]. Conversely, Turkey sees an opportunity to expand its influence in northern Syria, while Israel benefits from the weakening of Iran’s regional presence[1][5].
The U.S. and European countries have long called for Assad’s departure and a new political settlement. However, the rise of extremist factions like HTS poses new security challenges, complicating efforts to stabilize Syria and prevent it from becoming a haven for terrorist groups[5].
The Path to Peace: Challenges and Opportunities
Achieving peace in Syria requires addressing several critical challenges:
Reconstruction and Economic Recovery
Syria’s economy is in shambles, with 90% of the population living in poverty and the Syrian pound virtually worthless[1]. Reconstruction efforts will need sustained international support, but this must be balanced with the need for accountability and justice for past human rights abuses[2]. The lifting of sanctions, such as those imposed by the U.S. under the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, could help stimulate economic recovery[1].
Political Transition and Governance
The transitional government, led by HTS, faces skepticism regarding its commitment to democracy and human rights. Concerns include the treatment of minorities and women’s rights, as evidenced by recent protests in Qamishli demanding equal rights[1]. The appointment of Maysaa Sabine as the first woman to lead Syria’s central bank suggests some potential for progress in women’s representation[1].
Security and Stability
Security arrangements are crucial to prevent further conflict. The disbandment of armed groups and disarmament are essential steps toward stability[1]. However, the dominance of military entities in governance, despite their lack of support from local communities, poses a significant challenge[2].
International Diplomacy and Peace Processes
The UN-led peace process must adapt to the evolving landscape, engaging new actors and addressing the root causes of the conflict, including corruption and political exclusion[5]. The Geneva-based opposition has been sidelined, and the rise of HTS complicates negotiations[5]. A unified international effort is necessary to support a peaceful transition through free and fair elections[5].
Civil Society and the Future of Syria
Civil society organizations are at the forefront of efforts to build an inclusive transition process. A coalition of Syrian and international CSOs has urged the European Union to develop a comprehensive transition plan that includes all Syrian communities[1]. However, the path ahead is fraught with uncertainty, as Assad loyalists may seek to destabilize the new order, and families of detainees and fighters may demand revenge[1].
The role of civil society in promoting accountability and reconciliation initiatives is vital. These efforts must be supported by the international community to ensure that Syria’s transition is both sustainable and just[1].
The Role of Local Agreements in Peacebuilding
Local agreements have shown promise in reducing violence and fatalities, even when higher-level negotiations stall. These agreements can foster a sense of community and shared governance, providing a foundation for broader peace efforts[2]. The involvement of external actors in negotiating these agreements highlights the complex interplay between local and international dynamics in Syria’s peace process[2].
A Window of Opportunity for Reform
The fall of Assad presents a rare opportunity for reform and peacebuilding in Syria. However, this window is narrow, and the international community must act swiftly to support a Syrian-led transition. This involves not only providing humanitarian aid and economic support but also promoting governance reforms and human rights protections[5].
Humanitarian Aid and Refugee Returns
Humanitarian aid is crucial for stabilizing the socio-economic situation and reducing tensions. The safe and voluntary return of refugees is also essential for rebuilding communities and fostering a sense of normalcy[2][5].
Reconciliation and Justice
Reconciliation initiatives are vital to address the deep-seated grievances and abuses of the past. This includes establishing a justice system that can hold perpetrators accountable and provide closure for victims and their families[5].
The Geopolitical Landscape: Winners and Losers
The collapse of Assad’s regime has clear geopolitical implications:
- Turkey: Gains increased influence in northern Syria and an opportunity to address Kurdish separatist concerns[1].
- Israel: Benefits from the weakening of Iran’s influence and the disruption of supply lines to Hezbollah[1].
- Russia and Iran: Face significant setbacks, losing strategic allies and influence in the region[1][5].
The Future of Peace in Syria
The future of peace in Syria is uncertain but hopeful. For the first time in decades, there is a genuine opportunity for meaningful change. However, this requires careful management of competing interests, effective security arrangements, and inclusive political dialogue[1].
Challenges Ahead
- Fragmentation: Syria remains fragmented, with various factions and external actors pursuing different objectives[5].
- Extremist Governance: The rise of HTS poses challenges to democratic governance and human rights[5].
- International Support: The need for sustained international support without interference is critical[1].
Opportunities for Progress
- Civil Society Engagement: Civil society’s role in promoting inclusivity and accountability is vital[1].
- Economic Recovery: The lifting of sanctions and international aid could stimulate economic growth[1].
- UN-Led Peace Process: Adapting the peace process to engage new actors and address root causes of conflict is essential[5].
A New Chapter for Syria
As Syria embarks on this new chapter, the path to peace is fraught with challenges but also filled with opportunities. The international community must support Syria’s transition while respecting its leadership, ensuring that any progress is sustainable and just.
In the midst of these transitions, the role of civil society, international diplomacy, and local governance will be pivotal. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether Syria can overcome its past and forge a peaceful, democratic future.
Looking Forward: The Role of International Community
The international community’s role in supporting Syria’s transition is multifaceted:
- Diplomatic Engagement: Restoring diplomatic presence without interference is crucial for supporting a peaceful transition[1].
- Humanitarian Aid: Providing aid to all regions, regardless of control, is vital for reducing socio-economic tensions[2].
- Promoting Accountability: Supporting reconciliation initiatives and promoting accountability for past abuses is essential for healing and justice[5].
In conclusion, while the prospects for peace in Syria are promising, they are also precarious. The path ahead requires careful navigation of complex political, social, and economic challenges. With the right support and leadership, Syria can move toward a more peaceful and democratic future, one that honors the aspirations of its people and addresses the deep-seated grievances of the past.
